Delusion and the American Political Bubble

Back in 2004 I was addicted to reading the Daily Kos and listening to Air America.  I got most of my information from those sites and we were all convinced that John Kerry was going to be elected president and save us from the disaster caused by George Bush.  We were also certain that the American people saw this too and the election wasn't going to be close.

The day of the election was an emotional roller coaster.  The early voting showed Kerry doing better than expected and the exit polls looking in his favor.  I listened to Air America as I got ready for work that day.  We were sure Kerry's win was a lock.  I made frequent checks of Kos between meetings that morning to read the self congratulatory posts.

I left work in mid day to vote and afterward stopped by my house to check the web.  One thing I remember is at the time was there was a website that sold 'stocks' in presidential candidates.  Intrade does something similar now.  As there could only be one winner, a candidates stock usually rose and fell with the polls or events like the debates.  Everything changed on election day.  When the rumors started, Kerry's stock went from around 49 to around 70 in a few hours.  I went back to work listening to Air America sure that a Kerry victory was hours away.

When I left work warning signs had appeared.  Air America wasn't as positive as they had been but I rationalized their evening guy was a pessimist.  When I got home I checked the political stock market, I saw that Kerry had peaked around 80 but had fallen below 50 during the afternoon.  I decided to ignore that warning sign and spent the rest of the evening on Kos where the posters explained away the bad news I was seeing on CNN.

I don't remember when the election ended but by 10pm I was sick to my stomach as it was obvious the blowout I expected was not going to happen.  By midnight they had called Ohio and Florida for Bush which ensured him the presidency.  I tossed and turned all night and set my alarm for 6am to listen to Air America to listen to their explanation.  It didn't help much as the announcers were in as much shock as me.  The Daily Kos was depressing as we all searched for answers to the question - "How could we be so wrong?"

The truth was right in front of our face that someone on Kos termed called the political news bubble.  All information sites fight for readership and people like to hear good news so that's what they gave us.  We didn't want to hear any other answer and Air America and Kos fed our addiction as we ignored everything else.

The day before the election my boss asked me who I thought would win and I told him I thought Kerry would win in a landslide.  He laughed at me.  The next day when he was proved right he asked me why I thought Kerry would win when all the polls favored Bush.  I didn't have an answer.

The election was actually quite close in the electoral college.  If Florida or Ohio chose Kerry he would have won but both states followed the polls.  Florida went to Bush by 5% and Ohio by 2%.  Leading up to the election everyone knew these were the most important states and I guess I thought I knew the people living around me better than a silly poll.  Air America and Kos reinforced that belief until it all came crashing down on election day.

Since then I have tried to broaden my information sources.  It isn't fun to hear things opposite to what you want to happen but ignoring the truth only hurts you in the long run.

Last night I spent much of my time on an Ohio State website called the Ozone.  It's a site full of rabid Ohio State fans and posts on the main site is limited to Ohio State news.  The off topic forum is open to anything you want to discuss.  I have ignored it since the beginning because many of the posts I have seen there remind me of Kos from 2004 only with an extreme conservative bias.  The other reason I don't look is I have grown to respect many of the long time posters as Buckeye fans and know my opinions of them would be affected negatively if I got involved off-topic.  I prefer to think of them as Buckeye fans only and nothing else.

Yesterday, I ventured over to the off topic forum and it was like I'd been taken back in time to Kos circa 2004.  90% of the posts expected a Romney landslide and I just couldn't believe what I was seeing.  The worst offender was a guy I used to respect by the name of 'buckeye in georgia'.  Last year he was the leader of a group of Buckeye fans that felt Jim Tressel was a spy for the FBI which is why he had to lie to the NCAA.  I found it hard to believe this was true but he writes with such passion that he gives the impression he knows something you don't.  Eventually most realized the guy was a fraud and I thought he'd left the site but yesterday I found he only posts in the off-topic forum where is seems to be one of the leaders.

Once I started reading the off topic forum I couldn't stop.   They were so sure Romney was going to win.  I checked other websites online and didn't see anything to support their beliefs but their confidence confused me as no reliable news source was making statements either way.  Did these guys know something they didn't?  Buckeye in Georgia is the worst example of what I saw.

• All of these last minute polls have done nothing but solidify my prediction and sealed Obama's fate. Romney will win - buckeye in georgia [21:50:47 11/05/12] (3)

• This might end up being more than 340 EVs for Romney. * - buckeye in georgia [17:28:15 11/06/12] (16)
• I don't even think that's close to mathematically possible * - duke_buck [17:46:46 11/06/12] (1)
• My guess was 340 +/-, not 340 exactly. I was guessing on the - side, now I think it will be on the + side. * - buckeye in georgia [17:49:24 11/06/12] (0)

• PA, OH, MN, MI, CO, IA, NH, FL, VA, NC, WI all going Romney. * - buckeye in georgia [17:47:24 11/06/12] (23)

• This is going to swing hard for Romney. I might be able to hit the bed by 10! * - buckeye in georgia [19:49:07 11/06/12] (14)

• LOL...you all are NUTS! Romney wins this thing big! Relax! * - buckeye in georgia [20:16:33 11/06/12] (11)
• Can't wait to hear the excuses. I'm sure they're already prepared * - Cloud of Dust [20:19:51 11/06/12] (0)
• what are you smoking, they want some in OR & Cali * - Y-Town Buck [20:19:07 11/06/12] (3)
• Just watch those numbers move. I'm from the same area as you, so hard to believe. But, the numbers are going to move. * - buckeye in georgia [20:21:20 11/06/12] (2)

• Hang out for another 2 hours. About to blow up for Romney! * - buckeye in georgia [20:26:29 11/06/12] (1)

• Dude, Ohio is breaking big for Romney - anyone got some Doritos? * - buckeye in georgia [20:26:38 11/06/12] (3)

• So.....VA looks promising, OH looks like a train-wreck and FL looks like 2000 * - Buck Weaver [20:35:21 11/06/12] (3)
• Not what I see at all! All three are Romney. * - buckeye in georgia [20:39:01 11/06/12] (1)

• Not worried, kicking ass, actually!--->>> * - buckeye in georgia [20:55:33 11/06/12] (0)

• Obama lead in Ohio now 175K * - BCSBuck [20:56:02 11/06/12] (1)
• His lead will be -200K by midnight. * - buckeye in georgia [20:57:09 11/06/12] (0)

• Chuck Todd says FL is surprisingly close....I still don't buy it. * - FanO'theBUCKS [20:15:11 11/06/12] (2)
• Closer than 7 pts would be a surprise, I think. * - buckeye in georgia [20:17:34 11/06/12] (0)

He had over 107 posts in 24 hours on election day.  His post that said PA, OH, MN, MI, CO, IA, NH, FL, VA, NC, WI were all going Romney made me break my promise to myself not to post.

• I don't come to this side often but I see you are consistent in fringe thinking like your FBI/Jim Tressel posts 

Not my finest hour but after seeing what he was posting I couldn't help myself.  As it turned out Romney won only North Carolina.  As late as 8:55 he was calling for a Romney landslide.  He wasn't the only one to post things like that but he was the loudest.  When things started to solidify he didn't post for a while and the forum started to turn on him.  He had promised to pay something like $10 for every electoral vote Romney trailed Obama and the people that believed him didn't let him forget.

• Get out the checkbook BIG. You owe a BIG check. * - idiot_boyfriend [21:35:35 11/06/12] (5)
• It was a schtick. Anyone who thought otherwise is way out of it * - Cloud of Dust [21:37:23 11/06/12] (3)
• yep... half the stuff he says is BS * - the outsider [21:39:13 11/06/12] (2)
• LOL at "half" * - Solomon Dangerfield [21:45:54 11/06/12] (1)
• Not at all. GFY if you think otherwise. I'll honor my obligations. * - buckeye in georgia [21:48:30 11/06/12] (0)

• Buckeye in Georgia... where are you? you were SO #%^* sure... * - the displaced Buckeye [23:23:01 11/06/12] (5)
• I'm shocked, and I'll pay. * - buckeye in georgia [23:24:04 11/06/12] (4)

At 11:12pm, the election was called for Obama which by election standards is an early night.  Right now it looks like Obama has Florida which would give him a 332 to 206 electoral college win.  If the $10 is right it was a very expensive night for the poster named 'buckeye in georgia' and I can be thankful that my delusion from 2004 only lost me a some sleep.

In hindsight the 2004 election was important but I doubt Kerry would have been much better than Bush.  Every time I see him it reminds me of group think and how it can make even the most rational person believe something that deep down they know is not true.  It is something we all should guard against.

Tweet